Vadim Ryabov, Director General of the Managing Company of Concern Titan-2 holding, deputy of the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad region

On Feb 7 2007 Sosnovy Bor will host public hearings of the materials on the possible ecological impacts and the future operation of Leningrad NPP-2. Two days before the hearings, Director General of the Managing Company of Concern Titan-2 holding Vadim Ryabov presents his vision of the prospects for the economic and energy development of the North-Western region.

Presently, the region consumes over 70bln KWh. Some 9bln KWh is exported to Finland and the Baltic states. St. Petersburg consumes 23% of the energy, Leningrad 14%, i.e. a total of 22bln KWh.

In 2006 Leningrad NPP produced over 23bln KWh – 38% of what the North-Western region consumed and more than St. Petersburg and Leningrad regions needed.

The estimates for 2015–2030 have shown that during that period the economy of the region will substantially grow and, consequently, the region will need more energy. Our estimates are based on the retrospective analysis (1990–2005) and the forecast (2006–2020) of the region’s GDP and energy consumption.

If in 2005–2020 the GDP grows by 2.20 times, the energy consumption will grow by 1.85 times to 150bln-151bln KWh. The service periods of a number of TPPs will expire and this will require new gas TPPs. Even if Leningrad and Kolsk NPPs are modernized and their service periods are prolonged, they will still have to be stopped by 2026–2029.

Hence, unless we launch substituting capacities, the energy shortfall in the region will make up 21%-22% or 31bln-32bln KWh. An electric intensity of 87–85 KWh/1,000 RUR will result in a 375bln RUR reduction in the GDP (in the prices of 2000), and 56bln RUR reduction in the budgetary revenues. In 2016–2030 the GDP of the North-Western region may decrease by 14.37trl RUR – 45.4% of the potential GDP for the period. This will lead to a 2.15trl RUR reduction in the tax revenues.

Thus, by 2030 the economy of the region will degrade to the level of 1998.

The conclusion is that we must not allow the stoppage of Leningrad and Kolsk NPPs to cause an energy shortfall in the region and we must start building substituting capacities (LNPP-2). Under the Federal Target Program, the first unit of the plant is to be launched by 2012.

The only theoretical alternative to the LNPP-2 project is the building of 4mln KW of thermal power capacities. New gas TPPs will allow us to preserve the region’s GDP at 31.57trl RUR in 2016–2030. However, this will lead to a 304bln c m growth in the gas consumption and to a consequent increase in the CO2 and NOx emission (to 185mln tons and 447,000 tons, respectively, i.e. 3.4 times the level of “economic pollution”).

That’s why, in my opinion, there is no real alternative to LNPP-2.

What will LNPP-2 give to the residents of Sosnovy Bor? In short, it will give them development, prosperity and long-term employment.